Which statistical hypotheses are afflicted with false confidence?

Abstract

The false confidence theorem establishes that, for any data-driven, precise-probabilistic method for uncertainty quantification, there exists (both trivial and non-trivial) false hypotheses to which the method tends to assign high confidence. This raises concerns about the reliability of these widely-used methods, and shines promising light on the consonant belief function-based methods that are provably immune to false confidence. But an existence result alone leaves much to be desired. Towards an answer to the title question, I show that, roughly, complements of convex hypotheses are afflicted by false confidence.

Versions

➤  Version 2 (2024-09-29)

Citations

Ryan Martin (2024). Which statistical hypotheses are afflicted with false confidence?. Researchers.One. https://researchers.one/articles/24.04.00004v2

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