Applying the shadow distribution approach developed by the authors for violent conflicts , we provide rough estimates for quantities not immediately observable in the data.
Epidemics and pandemics are extremely heavy-tailed, with a potential existential risk for humanity. This property should override conclusions derived from local epidemiological models in what relates to tail events.
➤ Version 1 (2020-03-25)
Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Pasquale Cirillo (2020). Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases. Researchers.One, https://researchers.one/articles/tail-risk-of-contagious-diseases/5f52699d36a3e45f17ae7e62/v1.