The Twelfth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (ISIPTA 2021)

Tuesday, July 6th, 2021 – Friday, July 9th, 2021

* All times are in the Etc/UTC timezone.

Description:

ISIPTA is the primary international forum about theories and applications of imprecise probability. The symposium is open to contributions on all aspects of imprecise probability, which is a generic term for the many mathematical and statistical models and methods that allow us to measure chance or uncertainty without the restriction of sharp probabilities. This includes (but is not limited to) sets of probability measures, partial preference orderings, game-theoretic probability, choice functions, interval probabilities, belief functions, and possibility theory. Further details can be found here.

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The Twelfth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (ISIPTA 2021)

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Schedule

Extending the Domain of Imprecise Jump Processes from Simple Variables to Measurable Ones

Basic Probability Assignments Representable via Belief Intervals for Singletons in Dempster-Shafer Theory

Logical Approximations of Qualitative Probability

Quantum Indistinguishability through Exchangeable Desirable Gambles

Independent Natural Extension for Choice Functions

Bayesian Adaptive Selection under Prior Ignorance

Constructing Classification Trees with NPI-based Thresholds for Continuous Attributes

Jensen-Like Inequalities for Imprecise Previsions

Accounting for Imprecision of Model Specification in Bayesian Optimization

Imprecise Probability in Causal-AI Wonderland

When Belief Functions and Lower Probabilities are Indistinguishable

CREPO: An Open Repository to Benchmark Credal Network Algorithms

Probability Filters as a Model of Belief

Stochastic Optimization for Numerical Evaluation of Imprecise Probabilities

Randomness and Imprecision: A Discussion of Recent Results

Epistemic Argumentation with Conditional Probabilities and Labeling Constraints

A Gibbs Sampler for a Class of Random Convex Polytopes

Hierarchical Probabilistic Intervals

Time Scale Relativity of Objective Imprecise Probability

An Imprecise Bayesian Approach to Thermal Runaway Probability

Nonlinear Desirability as a Linear Classification Problem

Improving Algorithms for Decision Making with the Hurwicz Criterion

Imprecise Hypothesis-Based Bayesian Decision Making with Composite Hypotheses

A Remarkable Equivalence between Non-Stationary Precise and Stationary Imprecise Uncertainty Models in Computable Randomness

Generalized Hartley Measures on Credal Sets

Wasserstein perturbations of Markovian transition probabilities

Computing Upper Probabilities Using Global Optimization Algorithms Together With Importance Sampling Techniques

Beyond Tree-Shaped Credal Sum-Product Networks

Causal Inference and Data Fusion

Credal Sets of Conditional Probabilities Defined by Hausdorff Measures

Information Algebras of Coherent Sets of Gambles in General Possibility Spaces

Average Behaviour of Imprecise Markov Chains: A Single Pointwise Ergodic Theorem for Six Different Models

Constructing Consonant Beliefs from Multivariate Data with Scenario Theory

Valid Inferential Models for Prediction in Supervised Learning Problems

Total Evidence and Learning with Imprecise Probabilities

Elicitation of Preference Systems: Two Procedures and their Application to Decision Making under Severe Uncertainty

Distortion models for the probability of rare events: an application on human reliability.

Testing exchangeability: fork-conveity, supermartingales, and e-processes

Processing Multiple Distortion Models: a Comparative Study

A Recursive Formulation of Possibilistic Filters

Robust Model Checking with Imprecise Markov Reward Models

Betting Schemes for Assessing Coherent Numerical and Comparative Conditional Possibilities

Decision-Making from Partial Instances by Active Feature Querying

An Info-Gap Framework for Comparing Epistemic Uncertainty Models in Hybrid Structural Reliability Analysis.

On the Principal Principle and Imprecise Subjective Bayesianism

Direct Nonparametric Predictive Inference Classification Trees

Modelling Uncertainty in Quantum Mechanics Using Imprecise Probabilities

Uncertainty Spillovers for Markets and Policy

Using Credal C4.5 for Calibrated Label Ranking in Multi-Label Classification

Distributionally Robust, Skeptical Binary Inferences in Multi-label Problems

Discounting Desirable Gambles

Towards a Theory of Confidence in Market-Based Predictions

Computing Simple Bounds for Regression Estimates for Linear Regression with Interval-Valued Covariates

On the Comonotone Natural Extension of Marginal p-Boxes

An Accuracy Argument for Coherent Lower Previsions

Dynamic Imprecise Probability Kinematics

Decide Quicker with Total Choice Functions

Probabilistic Risk Management in Project Portfolios

Cautious Random Forests: a New Decision Strategy and some Experiments

The Sure Thing

Towards Improving Electoral Forecasting by Including Undecided Voters and Interval-Valued Prior Knowledge

Global Upper Expectations for Discrete-Time Stochastic Processes: In Practice, They Are All The Same!

Dependent Possibilistic Arithmetic using Copulas

An Efficient Lower Transition Rate Operator for the Sensitivity Analysis of Continuous-Time Markov Chains

Measuring Dispersion and Concordance of Real-valued Functions with Respect to Fuzzy Measures

Robust Bayesian Causal Inference for High-Dimensional Problems

SIPTA Meeting

Awards Ceremony and Closing Remarks