Maxx Goad

Prediction markets are currently used for three fields: 1. For economic, political and sporting event outcomes. (IEW, PredictIt, PredictWise) 2. For risk evaluation, product development and marketing. (Cultivate Labs/Consensus Point) 3. Research replication. (Replication Prediction Project, Experimental Economics Prediction Project, and Brian Nosek’s latest replicability study) The latter application of prediction markets has remained closed and/or proprietary despite the promising results in the methods. In this paper, I construct an open research prediction market framework to incentivize replicate study research and align the motivations of research stakeholders.